Patchwork #24 — managing expectations leads to better performance
Just do it, concert sales at ATHs, $300k BTC projection, and an increase in US semiconductor manufacturing
TLDR
Anecdote: Half of performance is expectation management.
Culture: The eclipse created an estimated $6B of economic value.
Money: The S&P500 goes up 75% of the time (since 1980).
Tech: Re-usable rockets will propel humanity forward.
~5 minute read
1. Anecdote
SUMMARY
Performance starts with communication and alignment.
Without action, there is no performance.
Half of performance is expectation management. The rest is execution.
Expectations are a two way straight, and managing them is more art than science. It boils down to communication. Without knowing the rules and playing field we’re on, we don’t know what game to play.
While “managing expectations requires gamesmanship, aligning them is leadership”. Once everything is solidified, execution and action dictate how you perform. No performance exists without action. Nike, an organization closer to G.O.A.T level performers than anyone, exemplifies this with their slogan Just do it.
The takeaway here is to communicate early and often. Iterate on what is said and align on that. Then just do it.
2. Culture
SUMMARY
46% of 18-24 year olds start their search for information with Google.
The eclipse last week delivered an estimated $6B infusion to the US economy.
The music industry really took a hit. They’re now slowly coming back (image above), even with a nudge from vinyl.
Concert tickets are also at an ATH (over $6B this past year).
The eclipse last week delivered an estimated $6B infusion to the US economy. This is a similar level to Taylor Swift’s Eras Tour ($5.7B) and the 2023 Super Bowl ($1.3B). Rock on nature.
As culture continues to fragment into niches and influencers, sports, music, and natural occurring events are some of the few universally appealing events that remain.
Last Sunday’s Iowa-South Carolina national championship game averaged 18.7M viewers. This was the most-watched basketball game in the past fiver years.
Awesome to see the women’s game getting elevated to this level.
Nearly half (46%) of 18-24 year olds start their search for information with Google.
25-39 year olds start with Google 58% of the time.
21% of 18-24 year olds start with TikTok and 5% start with YouTube.
Larry David’s Curb Your Enthusiasm ended after 24 years and 120 episodes.
Pretty, pretty, pretty good!
Box office forecasts for 2024 project $32.3B of revenue. This is trailing last year’s $33.9B.
People are lazy. They’ll watch the movie from home. It’s also cheaper. Movie theaters are adapting and trying to offer nicer experiences, meals, etc, but this all cuts into margin.
Last week we wrote about how video game IP is now being leveraged by Hollywood. The image above shows you the often overlooked size of the Games industry.
Orange juice sales have hit a 15-year low. There is also an upcoming global orange juice shortage. Future prices for frozen concentrate are nearing all-time-highs.
3. Money
SUMMARY
Since 1980, the S&P500’s annual returns have been positive 75% of the time.
$300k price for BTC projected based on the growth rate post-third halving.
Since 1980, the S&P500’s annual returns have been positive 75% of the time.
Invest early and often. It’s the same as going to the gym. Consistency matters.
A positive Q1 performance has historically led to further gains (image above).
Varda Space raised $90M for its in-space manufacturing startup.
Caffeinated Capital led and Lux, General Catalyst, Founders Fund, and Khosla joined. It’s great to see more frontier tech companies raising.
Dude Perfect raised more than $100M for its sports and comedy show.
Highmount Capital led. This was unexpected but these guys have been around making trick shots for what feels like at least a decade. Interesting to see a Youtube personality (group) raise outside capital. Distribution matters.
Anrok raised $30M for its sales tax compliance software.
Khosla Ventures led at a $250M valuation. Death and taxes are a couple certainties of life. Lean into markets and problems that are either required by law or that are keystones to a process.
The summary of the image above is that first “past performance is no guarantee of future results” but for the fun of it, price estimates after the fourth halving are:
$2m+ per BTC in an aggressive case (using the first halving’s growth rate)
$300k+ per BTC in a more modest case (using the hird halving’s growth rate)
Regardless of the result, buckle up!
4. Tech
SUMMARY
Google launches Find My Device feature, years after Apple’s.
TSMC wins $6.6B in grants to produce semiconductors in Phoenix.
TSMC received $6.6B in grants and $5B in loans from the United States under the Chips act. They’ll begin production in Phoenix by the end of the decade.
Wild how long it takes to get these factories in motion. I love that we’re decreasing our dependencies on other countries for important products.
Google is a number of years behind Apple. They’ve finally launched a Find My Device network for Android users.
The coolest part of this is that it supports bluetooth tags and recent phones (Pixel 8) will be able to be located even when shut down.
SpaceX launched more Starlink satellites for a record 20th re-use of a Falcon 9 rocket.
Space travel is expensive because of one-time use items like rockets. The appeal of the Falcon 9 is that it can be re-used. This makes things scalable.
Nearly a quarter begins their search with TikTok...that's when a closed the app 😝